The revolts of 2019

What is driving the 2019 revolts?

Revolutions of 2019, I think, presage a new breed of globalist revolutions. They are not part of the same and easily recognizable ideological pattern. They respond to local causes, but have a global element in the ability of communicate with each other (Catalan protesters imitated blockade of public infrastructure started by the Hong Kong protesters). Perhaps more importantly, they encourage each other: if Chileans are able to stand up, why not Colombians? If there is a single ideological glue to them, it is, I think, desire to have one’s voice heard. At the time of tectonic political shifts where politicians and old ideologies have lost much of their credibility, a thing which has not lost its credibility is the desire and the right to be heard and counted. It is in a sense a democratic protest but since standard two-party democracies have lost much of their shine after 2008, the revolts have trouble defining themselves in an ideological and political sense.

Revolution Number 9. Why the world is in uproar right now
By: Branko Milanovic- CUNY

A model for political conflict

Gennaioli and Tabellini developed a model of class conflict with endogenous voters identities. They then explored time patterns in US survey data in order to test the model’s predictions. They conclude:

When redistributive conflict is strong, less educated and poorer voters identify with low income people. As a result, they form stereotypes of excessively low social mobility, and demand large redistribution. The reverse occurs for more educated and richer voters. If instead conflict over culture or globalization becomes strong, less educated and poorer voters identify with social conservatives or losers from trade. Due to this identity switch, their views on these issues become more radical, while views on rich-poor redistribution more moderate. Critically, economic shocks hitting socially conservative or trade averse strata enhance similarity within these groups. As a result, such shocks may favor identification away from income class, reducing the demand for redistribution. More generally, by inducing specific belief distortions, endogenous social identity alters and propagates the effects of economic and social shocks.

Identity, Beliefs, and Political Conflict
Authors: Nicola Gennaioli, Guido Tabellini
From: Università Bocconi