Category: Monetary Policy

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Monetary Policy

When Debt Erodes Central Bank Independence

New research models how rising public debt endogenously undermines the credibility of central bank mandates, pushing economies from monetary to fiscal dominance. A recent ECB speech makes the same case from the policy side, warning that record debt levels, shorter maturities, and more price-sensitive bond investors are quietly narrowing the space for independent monetary policy.

Monetary Policy

How Firms Adjust Their Investment Decisions to Fed Policy

(Open Access) Two new working papers analyze how monetary policy transmits to corporate decision-making. The first shows that policy shocks reshape long-horizon spending far more than near-term budgets, pointing to adjustment costs as a key source of transmission lags. The second reveals that only a small share of firms drive most of the aggregate investment response.

Monetary Policy

When Central Banks’ Information Really Moves Expectations

Recent research highlights new evidence that media‑transmitted central bank narratives can shift households’ inflation expectations, and that the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections generates much larger high‑frequency “policy surprises” by conveying additional, forecast‑based information to markets.

Monetary Policy

Reading the Dots: What Fed Rate Projections Reveal and Where They Fall Short

The Fed’s dot plot is one of the most closely watched signals in financial markets, but new research reveals it plays a double role: improving average forecast accuracy when released, while paradoxically slowing markets’ ability to absorb new information in between quarterly updates.

Monetary Policy

Lost in Transmission: Household Perceptions and Monetary Policy

Standard macroeconomic models assume households respond to monetary tightening by postponing consumption as real interest rates rise. Three recent papers, drawing on U.S., euro area, and Japanese data, suggest the reality is far more complex raising the question: what exactly is the central bank steering if households hold inverted, inertial, or simply absent models of monetary transmission?

Monetary Policy

Asymmetric Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area

Two new studies from the ChaMP Research Network reveal an asymmetry at the heart of euro area monetary policy: rate hikes reliably contract credit, output, and inflation, while rate cuts produce surprisingly muted effects. The culprit lies in the banking sector itself.

Monetary Policy

How Global Shocks Rewrote the Rules of Monetary Policy

Fifty-five years of data across 13 advanced economies reveal a world where global forces and not domestic conditions, increasingly set the pace for monetary policy and financial markets have noticed.

Monetary Policy

Interest Rates and Consumption: A More Complicated Story

New research shows that the link between interest rates and household consumption is far more nuanced than textbook models suggest. Whether monetary policy reaches consumers’ wallets depends less on the size of the rate move and more on the institutional landscape.

Monetary Policy

The Fiscal-Monetary Frontier: New Thinking on Policy Coordination

Two new contributions overturn key tenets of conventional stabilization policy, showing that slow or absent fiscal adjustment can be a central bank’s best ally over the business cycle rather than an obstacle to price stability. Together, they map out a new framework for monetary-fiscal coordination in which the two arms of government are always intertwined.

Monetary Policy

The Complementarity of Interest Rate and Balance Sheet Policies

Two new theoretical frameworks independently show that interest rate policy and balance sheet management are complementary tools and not substitutes, each with a distinct and irreplaceable role in achieving both macroeconomic stability and an efficient distribution of risk across the economy.

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