The two papers approach geopolitical risk and the US economy from complementary but distinct angles: one from the supply side of coercion i.e. what does the US pay when it wields economic power? The other from the demand side of vulnerability i.e. how exposed is the US to global shocks it may trigger or receive?

European governments are committing to historic increases in defense spending, but the economic bill remains poorly understood. Two new working papers shed light on what rearmament will cost and who will bear the burden.

As NATO countries embark on the largest military buildup in decades, two new working papers offer a timely historical reckoning. One shows that rearmament permanently expands the fiscal state through higher taxes and not social spending cuts, while the other reveals that war levels incomes primarily through capital destruction and profit squeezes, with far weaker effects on wealth.

Two new papers reveal the fragility of rules-based trade and the real-world impact of economic statecraft: the first shows that multilateral trade rules can only survive if dominant countries fear future punishment, while the second maps how tariffs, sanctions, and export controls actually reshape firm behavior and global supply chains.

Two recent papers trace the intellectual roots of geoeconomics and provide a rigorous economic framework for understanding how states use economic tools—such as sanctions, trade restrictions, and financial threats—to exert geopolitical influence.