A growing body of economic research is moving beyond rational-choice frameworks to show that emotions systematically shape policy outcomes at both ends of the political process. One paper finds that inducing anger, not fear, is what moves citizens to support climate and redistributive policies, while a second finds that Mario Draghi’s smile and Christine Lagarde’s frown each move bond yields in predictable and measurable ways .

Recent research introduces fresh frameworks for assessing sovereign debt vulnerabilities, showing that debt sustainability hinges not just on economic fundamentals but also on rising political risks and uncertainty.

Two recent papers on global fragmentation present a theoretical model of economic coercion by hegemonic powers like the US and China, while the other complements this by introducing an empirical index of geopolitical fragmentation.

As BRICs push for financial sovereignty and a multipolar economic system, middle powers are emerging as key players in shaping the future of global finance. This shift challenges the traditional US-led hegemony and the IMF/World Bank approach.

Two recent research papers examine how political polarization in the U.S.  influences inflation expectations and financial decisions across households, firms, and financial intermediaries, with consequences for asset prices, corporate policies, and economic outcomes.

How has political pressure affected monetary policy in the U.S.? What are European politicians think about the ECB?

Economists explore a) the impact of zero-sum thinking on political views and policies, and b) whether politicians’ positions and policies correspond to voter preferences in the U.S. and France.

In September 2024, the United Nations will convene a Summit of the Future, designed to address the crisis of multilateralism by modernizing outdated institutions of global governance. Joseph Stiglitz and Dani Rodrik outline pragmatic approach to global governance that is adaptable to the political realities of a world dominated by powerful nation-states and interests.

Ballooning developing countries’ sovereign debt, China’s outlook, and elections in 40 countries are some of the risks that are hiding in plain sight for 2024.

New research on how countries in the process of democratization are associated with higher sovereign debt spreads and equity risk premia than countries with autocratic governments.