Category: U.S.
Why the Fed Sold Euros, Not Dollars: A Portfolio Balance Reading of the 2026 Yen Intervention
(Open Access) A new research paper explains the puzzling April 2025 dollar depreciation and yield rise as the result of falling foreign demand for dollar bonds, absorbed by risk-averse arbitrageurs. This is a framework that also sheds light on the July/August 2026 U.S.-Japan yen intervention.
Is the U.S. already in recession?
A new recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data for a more timely and accurate detection of recessions. What does it indicate for current conditions?
On the U.S. federal debt
What is the outlook of the U.S. federal debt? Can fiscal deficits finance themselves?
