Category: Oil
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The Iran War and the U.S. Economy: Growth Resilient, Inflation at Risk
New research offers a nuanced picture of the Iran War’s economic fallout: the U.S. is dramatically less vulnerable to oil shocks than in past decades, but faces meaningful near-term inflation pressures while at the same time, the conflict is testing the long-standing petrodollar architecture.
Oil, War, and Inflation: What New Research Tells Us
New research shows that oil price shocks driven by geopolitical risk are far more severe than standard supply disruptions, imposing broad inflationary costs on all countries . In the context of the 2026 Iran War, a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure could raise U.S. headline inflation by up to 1.5 percentage points.
The Current Oil Crisis: Impacts, Policy, and the Green Transition
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is sending shockwaves through the global economy albeit unevenly, hitting energy-importing and lower-income countries hardest. A decade of clean energy investment has built some buffer, absolute fossil fuel dependence remains near record highs. While monetary conditions are better than 2022, for central banks, the challenge is delicate.
Energy Shocks, Supply Chains, and Inflation
Two new papers explore why energy price shocks translate into sustained inflation: one paper shows that supply chain uncertainty causes firms to misread energy price signals and raise prices pre-emptively, while a second shows that production networks then amplify and prolong these inflationary pressures.
Navigating the End of Oil Demand
As global oil demand declines, the disinvestment effect of oil producers will outweigh the risk of a near-term extraction surge while global oil markets will revert to a zero-sum game.
The price cap on Russian oil: did it work?
Recent research provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the price cap on Russian oil exports, offering insights into its significance for global economics and geopolitics.
On the U.S. gas tax holiday
The Biden administration has called on Congress to suspend the federal gasoline tax through September. Is it a good idea?
The effects of sanctions on Russian oil and gas on EU
Hot off the press two studies which examine the impact on Germany and EU27 of a stop of Russian energy imports.
On high oil prices and inflation
Two new studies on the effects of high gasoline prices, as opposed to high crude oil prices, on inflation and inflation expectations.
About the surging energy prices
What are the drivers behind the recent surge in energy prices? What are energy futures predicting?