Employment trends: new theories

New research on how belonging to a community affects employment and the impact of company-wide, voluntary minimum wages on employee retention.


The predictive power of the yield curve

Two new research papers document two different channels through which the slope of the U.S. yield curve and the slope of foreign yield curves are predictors of U.S. economic activity.


Public debt dynamics

New research on the optimal level of debt and public debt sustainability in an uncertain macro-financial environment.


On trend inflation

Two new papers highlight the significant impact of trend inflation on economic dynamics: ignoring trend inflation can lead to overestimating the cost of disinflation and if trend inflation is above a certain threshold is associated with substantial long-run output losses.


AI and the macroeconomy

Some experts believe that artificial general intelligence (AGI), enabling AI to perform essentially all human tasks, will have transformative implications for the macroeconomy. Are these positive estimates exaggerated?


On experience-based inflation expectations

New research on the aggregate implications of heterogeneous inflation expectations and how experience-based inflation expectations can explain the secular dynamics of real interest rates.


New research on inequality

A heterogeneous agent model that shows how inequality arises in economies that transition to different types of production. How does inequality contribute to financial instability?

Financial Markets

Are bubbles inevitable?

What have we learned from history? A new paper finds a general class of economic models with dividend-paying assets in which asset price bubbles arise in all equilibria.


The economic impact of global temperature shocks

New research highlights why previous estimates of the impact of temperature increases on global GDP are vastly underestimated.


New and noteworthy books in economics (May)

This month’s selection features four insightful books: one delving into the ascent of macroprudential regulation, another examining monetary economics through the prism of corporate finance, a third exploring how statistics can manipulate our cognitive biases, and a final volume addressing the macroeconomic implications of decarbonization.
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