Two new studies examine how the 2026 Middle East war is reshaping economic prospects: from GDP and inflation effects across major economies to the distributional consequences for European households. Together, they offer complementary perspectives on the war’s transmission channels, spanning global energy markets, fertilizer supply chains, and the interplay between consumer uncertainty and precautionary savings .

When credit flows to bricks rather than machines, growth suffers: cross-country data show real-estate-heavy credit predicts slower GDP growth, and firm-level evidence from Canada pins the mechanism on collateral-driven misallocation toward less productive firms.

Generative AI investment and measurable productivity gains are providing critical support to the US economy alongside temporary boosts from front-loading and tariff moderation. Yet this AI-driven resilience may be fragile, as lagged effects of trade restrictions and policy uncertainty begin to emerge.

New research underscores how entrepreneurship drives innovation and shapes the distribution of economic progress. Expanding educational access cultivates transformative entrepreneurs who convert ideas into technological advances and job creation, while entrepreneurial co-invention determines where and how the greatest value from innovation emerges across industries and regions.

Recent research highlights a striking acceleration in U.S. productivity growth since 2022, with technology and AI-intensive sectors leading the way. While new data suggest a higher probability of a lasting shift, it will take more evidence to confirm whether this surge marks a true turning point or simply a temporary boost.

Recent research highlights advances and challenges in economic forecasting, with new indicators offering earlier recession warnings and evidence that simple models using a handful of key variables can match the accuracy of more complex forecasts.

New research shows that as economies shift from material production to quality-driven services, emissions can fall even as living standards rise—suggesting that “weightless” growth, not just degrowth, may be key to environmental sustainability.

Two new research papers one presents a new recession detection method that combines unemployment and job vacancy data, offering faster and more reliable real-time identification of US recessions and the other develops a machine-learning algorithm that outperforms conventional models in predictive accuracy.

The majority of people surveyed in 36 countries are pessimistic about the future of the next generation. The concern is highest in advanced economies, including Canada and the United States and many European nations.

New research shows that as economies develop, credit shifts from manufacturing to real estate—a trend linked to weaker productivity gains and collateral dependence that slows long-term growth.