Category: Economic Growth

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Economic Growth

The bond market as the best recession predictor in the US and Europe

New research on how the bond market is the best predictor of recessions in the US, but is this true for Europe as well?

Economic Growth

The state of the global economy

Global economic growth has already been revised downwards to 2.9 percent for 2022, from 5.7 percent in 2021. But there are further downside risks.

Economic Growth

Talk of recession

What is the likelihood of a recession in the US and when? Has the Fed achieved “soft landings” in the past?

Economic Growth

The state of the global economy

High uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine and loss of growth momentum foreshadow a difficult period ahead.

Economic Growth

Is it time to talk about stagflation?

It’s all about the Fed’s credibility, but can China play a role?

Economic Growth

The October global economic outlook

The latest revisions to the global economic outlook point towards increasing uncertainty. A new paper on how to investigate growth at risk.

Economic Growth

Is the US economy overheating or just recovering?

Are the Fed’s projections for the US economy consistent with reality?

Economic Growth

The road to recovery

We have selected some interesting points from the recently released economic outlook reports.

Economic Growth

The confidence multiplier

A new working paper presents the idea of “confidence multiplier” as an amplifier of business cycle fluctuations. A warning for the global economy?

Economic Growth

A utopian view of the global economy

Ian Goldin suggests that the way forward is greater international cooperation which will increase global resilience. But the current trends point to a different direction.

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