There is tentative evidence that the increase in productivity in the U.S. during the 2020-22 period can be attributed to the performance of work-from-home service industries. But there are caveats.

New research on how the bond market is the best predictor of recessions in the US, but is this true for Europe as well?

Global economic growth has already been revised downwards to 2.9 percent for 2022, from 5.7 percent in 2021. But there are further downside risks.

What is the likelihood of a recession in the US and when? Has the Fed achieved “soft landings” in the past?

High uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine and loss of growth momentum foreshadow a difficult period ahead.

It’s all about the Fed’s credibility, but can China play a role?

The latest revisions to the global economic outlook point towards increasing uncertainty. A new paper on how to investigate growth at risk.

Are the Fed’s projections for the US economy consistent with reality?

We have selected some interesting points from the recently released economic outlook reports.

A new working paper presents the idea of “confidence multiplier” as an amplifier of business cycle fluctuations. A warning for the global economy?