What is the impact of contracting working-age populations on the growth of per capita income and the natural rate of interest?

Both the Washington Consensus and the Beijing Consensus are in need of a radical rethink.

Is the U.S. achieving a soft landing? Is China’s economy dangerously slowing down?

New research on how high skilled immigrants in Europe contribute to innovation and the increase of the top 1% income share.

There is tentative evidence that the increase in productivity in the U.S. during the 2020-22 period can be attributed to the performance of work-from-home service industries. But there are caveats.

New research on how the bond market is the best predictor of recessions in the US, but is this true for Europe as well?

Global economic growth has already been revised downwards to 2.9 percent for 2022, from 5.7 percent in 2021. But there are further downside risks.

What is the likelihood of a recession in the US and when? Has the Fed achieved “soft landings” in the past?

High uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine and loss of growth momentum foreshadow a difficult period ahead.

It’s all about the Fed’s credibility, but can China play a role?