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Macro

For the next downturn…(2)

Posted by e-axes on November 15, 2017

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Fed’s independence at risk

As the Fed’s ammunition to fight the next recession will be rather limited, government spending will be a more effective way to boost demand. If monetary and fiscal policies will have to be more coordinated would that lead to a loss of Fed’s independence? Summers is alluding to this possibility and is in support of partially limiting the Fed’s autonomy.

Central Bank Independence
By: Larry Summers – Harvard University

A crisis brewing?

As US consumers turn more and more to Amazon.com for their shopping needs, traditional retail chains are running into serious trouble. Recent government statistics show that the industry employs 8 million people, a good percentage of whom will see their jobs disappear if this “retail apocalypse” continues.

America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning
By: Bloomberg

Can the US labor market withstand the hit?

In this recent working paper, Katz and Krueger call the recent labor market recovery into question since they show that 94{5e7f07e14add20b2e04f4edb85a447d3cd8121fc27b809645e9fed603c22cc5c} of the net employment growth seen between 2005 and 2015 seems to have occurred within alternative work arrangements such as temporary help agency workers, on-call workers, contract workers, and independent contractors or freelancers. This finding raises questions not only about workers’ pay but also about job security and whether these jobs will be the first to disappear during a future downturn.

The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States, 1995-2015
Authors:Lawrence F. Katz, Alan B. Krueger
From: Harvard University – Princeton University

US household debt

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