The state of the U.S.-China conflict
In this commentary, Adam Tooze analyzes Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s speech during the IMF-World Bank meetings on the economic relation with China. Here are some interesting points:
- Yellen argues that China can grow without threatening American economic leadership but the U.S. national security is of paramount importance in the relationship with China.
- Yellen insists that U.S. measures against China will be tightly targeted but those targeted measures have so far included efforts to hobble the world leader in 5G technology, Huawei, sanctions against the entire chip supply chain, and the inclusion of most major research universities in China on America’s entities list that strictly limits trade.
All the while, Tooze argues, China and India seem to aspire to a fundamental reordering of world affairs such that American talk of leadership is retired forever.
Does China not understand that it owes its growth to an American-led order? To rebel against that order, Yellen says quite openly, is not in China’s interest. Yellen is right that conflict between China and the United States is not inevitable. It does depend on the moves that both sides make. But it is hard to see how her vision, in which the United States arrogates to itself the right to define which trajectory of Chinese economic growth is and is not acceptable, can possibly be a basis for peace.


US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart
By: Chad P. Bown – PIIE
America Has Dictated Its Economic Peace Terms to China
By: Adam Tooze – Columbia University
How about the capital flows from China to the U.S.?
The U.S. lacking in savings takes full advantage of the dollar as the world’s dominant reserve currency to import surplus savings from China and other countries, argues Stephen Roach. The Biden administration is expected to issue an executive order that will place restrictions on foreign direct investment by US firms in certain “sensitive technologies” in China, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Such actions could compromise capital flows from China which could lead to slower economic growth, higher inflation, and potentially a weaker dollar.
This is hardly an ideal outcome for a US economy that is already at a precarious point in the business cycle. The tradeoff for national security should not be taken lightly. Nor should the US penchant to over-hype the security threat be accepted on blind faith.
The Economic Costs of America’s Conflict with China
By: Stephen S. Roach – Yale University