Europe’s demographic decline
The 2010s were an exceptional decade that called for unprecedented economic policies in the eurozone. Now, however, the ECB and fiscal policymakers must think more long-term and accept that continued economic stimulus is unlikely to offset the effects of a shrinking population.
Will Eurozone Policymakers Take the Long View?
By: Daniel Gross – Centre for European Policy Studies
China’s slowdown
China is running into some of the most difficult challenges since the global financial crisis. Yet the Chinese leadership, during its December Central Economic Work Conference, indicated that the emphasis for 2020 will be on steady countercyclical adjustments. dampening any prospect for stronger stimulus.
China Signals No Major Stimulus for 2020
By: Tianlei Huang, Martin Chorzempa – Peterson Institute
The US elections
As I see it, the only thing that could get Trump re-elected is if the Democrats choose as their candidate someone who scares off the voters in the middle. That would be someone who calls himself a socialist, as Bernie Sanders does, or who supports the same policies, such as the proposal to disallow private health insurance. The median American voter won’t go for such a candidate. If I am right, the consequences of a far-left nominee would be dire.
Most important global event of 2020? The US election
By: Jeffrey Frankel – Harvard University
Some broader questions
Narayana Kocherlakota spells out some of the main questions macroeconomists need to answer going forward:
- Shouldn’t governments take advantage of low interest rates?
- What macroeconomic policies would need to be undertaken to ensure that an aging population can be the basis for a dynamic economy?
- Should developed countries slow growth to reduce climate change?
Five Big Macroeconomic Questions for 2020 and Beyond
By: Narayana Kocherlakota – University of Rochester
