US-China tariff fight

How things can quickly escalate

For Trump, Menzie Chinn argues, imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods is a political gambit before the November mid-term elections. For Xi, on the other hand, retaliation will be perceived as an important show of strength for the Party leader, while any economic fallout can be mitigated by currency devaluation among other state policy options.
Who Will Relent – Xi or Trump? On Actual and Perceived Payoff Matrices
By: Menzie Chinn – University of Wisconsin–Madison

Diverging opinions on the technology transfer

The forced transfer of technology and intellectual property must be stopped.

[…] because despite record levels of research spending, China’s productivity growth has been slowing in recent years. China’s government can therefore be expected to take drastic measures to escape the dreaded middle-income trap — and that means acquiring foreign technology by hook or by crook.

Trump Is Right: China Should Stop Stealing the U.S.’s Best Ideas
By: Noah Smith – Stony Brook University

…but technology transfer to China could be a win/win for the global economy argue Scott Sumner and Jennifer Hunt.

Let’s transfer more technology to China
By: Scott Sumner – George Mason University

Can Both the United States and China Be Winners in a Global Technology Race?
By: Jennifer Hunt – Rutgers University

Why it matters who wins at the end

Barry Eichengreen paints a grim picture of a China-led international order in the event the US ceases to be a global hegemon.
Globalization with Chinese Characteristics
By: Barry Eichengreen – Berkeley