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Eurozone

The start of Brexit negotiations

Posted by e-axes on June 20, 2017

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“The Franco-German axis is less troubled by a “no deal scenario” than many in London (and outside the European Union) appreciate. Yes, the EU-27 would certainly like to maintain close foreign policy, antiterror and defense relations with the United Kingdom. And yes, they would like to avoid the economic dislocation from a “no deal” Brexit that cuts the United Kingdom off from economic relations. But the EU-27 economy is strong enough to welcome a push for additional EU (and euro area) integration, unimpressed by May’s threats to walk away.”
Are Germany and France Trying to Get the UK to Rescind Brexit?
By: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard – Peterson Institute for International Economics

Welfare gains from EU

In this paper Mayer and al. are trying to quantify the welfare gains from the EU integration to member countries. They find that average gains range from 2{5e7f07e14add20b2e04f4edb85a447d3cd8121fc27b809645e9fed603c22cc5c} to 7.5{5e7f07e14add20b2e04f4edb85a447d3cd8121fc27b809645e9fed603c22cc5c} depending on the characteristics of each country member and conclude that EU integration generated a substantial and permanent real GDP increase. When they consider Brexit they estimate the welfare loss to the other EU members to be around -0.1{5e7f07e14add20b2e04f4edb85a447d3cd8121fc27b809645e9fed603c22cc5c} to -0.6{5e7f07e14add20b2e04f4edb85a447d3cd8121fc27b809645e9fed603c22cc5c} while for the UK the loss to be around -0.6{5e7f07e14add20b2e04f4edb85a447d3cd8121fc27b809645e9fed603c22cc5c} to -2.5{5e7f07e14add20b2e04f4edb85a447d3cd8121fc27b809645e9fed603c22cc5c} of GDP. Around three quarters of the losses for the UK come from leaving the single market and are not related to the re-installation of tariffs.


The Cost of Non-Europe Revisited
Authors: Thierry Mayer, Vincent Vicard, Soledad Zignago,
From:Sciences-Po, CEPII, Banque de France

Passporting rights

Schoenmaker undertakes a detailed analysis of what is entailed in case the UK loses passporting rights. He evaluates whether different financial sectors will be equally affected, assesses the impact on euro-denominated trading and argues that the UK “faces for its financial services sector a fundamental choice between global and EU business.”


The UK Financial Sector and EU Integration after Brexit: The Issue of Passporting
Author:Dirk Schoenmaker
From: Erasmus University

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