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The Reader’s Guide to Optimal Monetary Policy

Posted by e-axes on August 28, 2019

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An ML library on economics and finance

The goal for this project is to be the definitive source on optimal inflation for every central bank around the world. When making decisions about the inflation target, it is crucial for both policy makers and the general public to be able to evaluate the entire state of knowledge on the topic. The inflation target fundamentally serves as the core through which policy makers rationalize their actions, and their actions impact everyone.

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From John Cochrane (Stanford University):

Who said 2% inflation is a good idea? The graph shows publication date on the horizontal axis, the optimal inflation rate on the y axis, and the size of the circle is the number of citations.The sizeable number of dots around -4% reflect the “Friedman rule” idea. (Sadly, the graph doesn’t include Friedman. It only goes back to 1990.) The idea here is that the nominal interest rate should be zero, so you earn the same on money as on bonds. Then there is no reason to economize on holding cash. Most of these were written when real rates were thought to be around 4%, so you need 4% deflation to get a nominal interest rate of zero. Ah, the good old days.

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