From exports to domestic consumption
On the expenditure side, final consumption has played an increasing role, contributing 58.8 percent of GDP growth. On the production side, services have become the main driver of economic growth. The value-added of the service sector as a share of GDP was 51.6 percent in 2017. These positive developments are far from the “hard landing” anticipated by bearish commentators over the past three years, many of whom predicted that the economy was due for a crash because of rapid credit growth.
The Tricky Challenge of Understanding China’s Economy
By: Zixuan Huang – Peterson Institute
Towards becoming a market economy
Kamber and Mohanty use daily interest rate swap contracts to construct a time series of monetary policy surprises which they then use to evaluate the impact of monetary policy on the term structure of interest rates and economic activity. They find that monetary policy transmission in China has become increasingly similar to that in advanced economies.
Do interest rates play a major role in monetary policy transmission in China?
Authors: Gunes Kamber, M S Mohanty
From: BIS
Can China be the next economic hegemon?
China’s labor advantage today could become a handicap tomorrow if robots and AI become the dominant future drivers of production. Kenneth Rogoff argues that China will have a difficult time not only dealing with extreme inequality but also maintaining its franchise as export superpower into the machine age.
Will China Really Supplant US Economic Hegemony?
By: Kenneth Rogoff – Harvard University
…a historical digression
China Worries: Echoes of Japan, and the Soviet Union
By: Timothy Taylor – Journal of Economic Perspectives
