U.S. GDP forecasts for 2020
While no one is forecasting a recession yet, forecasts are being marked down.
Forecasts and Output Gaps in the Wake of Covid-19 (as of early March)
By: Menzie Chinn – University of Wisconsin–Madison
How will Italy’s credit supply be impacted?
Italy entered the coronavirus crisis with high debt, low growth and a banking sector not fully recovered from the financial crisis. Therefore, the critical issue, argue Cadamuro and Papadia, is whether there will be negative bank credit developments:
In terms of advance warning, one can look at the credit default swaps of large Italian companies. The mechanism that could lead to credit problems could be the higher default risk of firms borrowing from banks, which would impair the flow of bank credit.
Three macroeconomic issues and Covid-19
By: Leonardo Cadamuro, Francesco Papadia – Bruegel
The spread of coronavirus is an exponential process
The next chart suggests a different, and more meaningful, way of looking at the global spread of coronavirus. It also shows a striking similarity between the epidemics in Hubei and other regions, but with a very different message. In every affected region, the spread of the virus, shown here on a logarithmic scale (as is appropriate for any exponential contagion process), is slowing almost to a standstill, roughly in line with the experience of Hubei. The media predictably prefer the sensational-looking linear story that extrapolates the Hubei experience into a global apocalypse with millions or billions of victims. More surprising is that many politicians and healthcare professionals are also promoting this misleading view.
COVID-19 by the Numbers
By: Anatole Kaletsky – Gavekal Dragonomics
