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British Pound: Topsy-Turvy
Gourinchas and al and Wren-Lewis have been expecting for the pound to continue depreciating without benefiting the UK economy. But the announcement of the June 8 general election might reverse the trend as new research by Sornette and al. indicates and Didion evaluates Prime Minister May’s negotiating strategy.
Three new papers on expectations
Three interesting research papers have recently been published on alternative ways to formulate expectations: Coibio Gorodnichenko and Kamdar write on imperfect information, Khaw, Li and Woodford on myopia, and Gabaix and Laibson on distorted perceptions.
The new oil market
How will this tug of war between OPEC and US shale oil producers will affect the balance between oil supply and demand going forward? This is the question that new research from the IMF and the University of Michigan are trying to answer.