Archive
Page 3/139
AI Valuations and Private Credit
(Open Access) As AI infrastructure spending races past $2.9 trillion through 2028, private credit has quietly become one of its biggest financiers with AI-related deals tripling to 34% in 2025. This issue traces how a shock to AI valuations or earnings could transmit through bank credit lines and data-center financing straight into an already-untested $2 trillion private credit market.
Is Economic Growth Compatible With Credible Climate Constraints?
(Open Access) Recent research finds severe climate damages justify aggressive carbon pricing which actually boosts growth. Yet another recent research paper finds that even an efficient carbon price leaves little room for a fair global carbon budget that also allows developing countries to grow. Climate policy may help aggregate growth, but equity remains unsolved.
The AI Measurement Problem: When Markets Price What Firms Can’t Easily Disclose
(Open Access) Two new 2026 papers tackle how to measure AI’s economic footprint: one diagnoses why different AI datasets give conflicting answers, the other shows equity markets already price AI exposure directly with high-AI-beta firms earning a significant premium.
Why the Fed Sold Euros, Not Dollars: A Portfolio Balance Reading of the 2026 Yen Intervention
(Open Access) A new research paper explains the puzzling April 2025 dollar depreciation and yield rise as the result of falling foreign demand for dollar bonds, absorbed by risk-averse arbitrageurs. This is a framework that also sheds light on the July/August 2026 U.S.-Japan yen intervention.
Why Firms Choose the U.S. And What Europe Could Do About It
Two 2026 papers explain the US–EU competitiveness gap and how to close it. One traces it to funding-market efficiency, EU market fragmentation, and a scale penalty on large EU firms, while the other shows that fixing Europe’s banking and venture-capital gaps could lift long-run GDP by about 3%.
New and Noteworthy Books in Economics (July)
This issue brings together four timely explorations of how economic systems shape people’s lives: a history of the first global financial crash and its political aftershocks, a critique of today’s personal finance markets and proposals to fix them, a vivid guide to our new era of trade wars and geopolitical competition, and a fresh look at morally contested markets, from organs to education, through the lens of incentives and market design.
When Central Banks’ Information Really Moves Expectations
Recent research highlights new evidence that media‑transmitted central bank narratives can shift households’ inflation expectations, and that the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections generates much larger high‑frequency “policy surprises” by conveying additional, forecast‑based information to markets.
Immigration as a Productivity Engine: Evidence from Advanced Economies and U.S. Labor Shortages
New cross‑country evidence shows that higher immigration inflows raise labor productivity, investment, and TFP in OECD economies, while recent U.S. research finds that post‑pandemic immigration has actively eased low‑skill labor shortages by helping fill vacancies and moderating wage pressures.
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and Sovereign Risk
Geopolitical shocks directly raise sovereign default risk, while geoeconomic shocks work mainly through financial conditions and uncertainty. Complementary evidence from EU reveals that both these shocks depress lower‑tail GDP growth and tighten lending, with highly indebted and highly open economies bearing the brunt of these risks.
Can Financial Markets and Economic Literacy Reshape the Politics of Climate? Action
Two new papers look at why climate policy underperforms. Voters back inefficient regulations because they misread how carbon taxes work while a financial stake in energy stocks, green or brown, is more effective at building climate support than any messaging campaign. The barriers are not values. They are knowledge and engagement.