Archive
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China and the Political Economy of Critical Minerals
Two new papers examine how China’s policy-built position in critical-mineral processing can create global economic leverage, and how rare-earth supply disruptions can propagate through production networks, affecting output and industrial resilience.
Gold, the Dollar, and the Geopolitics of Global Reserves
Two new papers examine how sanctions and cross-border seizure risks are reshaping reserve management, driving demand for gold, challenging dollar assets, and potentially transforming global financial markets.
Fertility Falls Everywhere But Will Growth Suffer?
Two new papers examine the global fertility decline. The first shows how nearly universal this trend is, with standard economic explanations falling short. The second challenges the usual pessimism: lower birth rates coincide with faster growth in GDP per working-age adult and more labor-saving innovation.
From Information to Liquidity: How Stablecoins Reshape Bank Intermediation
Two new papers show that stablecoins may transform banking in two ways: by weakening the transaction information that supports bank lending and by increasing banks’ liquidity needs, reserves and exposure to payment shocks.
Can Tariffs Fix Global Imbalances?
As global imbalances widen and trade tensions intensify, tariffs are increasingly presented as a remedy for persistent deficits. Two new papers question this logic. They find that imbalances largely reflect domestic macroeconomic forces and that tariffs, even when they reduce deficits, can impose substantial welfare costs.
Rethinking Markets in the Age of AI Agents
Autonomous AI agents could transform markets, firms, and financial institutions while challenging the assumptions that underpin economic coordination. Two new papers examine how AI may reshape bargaining, decision-making, market stability, and institutional trust and why humans may struggle to understand or anticipate the actions of increasingly capable AI systems.
New and Noteworthy Books in Economics (August)
We have selected four books that offer thought-provoking perspectives on global capitalism, European economic policy, cultural change, and financial inclusion. Together, they examine how institutions, ideas, and policies shape economic opportunity and social outcomes.
Decomposing Treasury Supply Shocks: Volume, Maturity, and Monetary Equivalence
Two new 2026 working papers show Treasury issuance moves yields much like monetary policy. One isolates the maturity dimension: extending debt maturity steepens the curve, eases credit-risk premia via signaling, boosts near-term investment, and can offset roughly a third of the Fed’s QE-driven yield compression.
How Firms Adjust Their Investment Decisions to Fed Policy
(Open Access) Two new working papers analyze how monetary policy transmits to corporate decision-making. The first shows that policy shocks reshape long-horizon spending far more than near-term budgets, pointing to adjustment costs as a key source of transmission lags. The second reveals that only a small share of firms drive most of the aggregate investment response.