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Macro

On inflation

Posted by e-axes on July 4, 2017

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Chicago Fed President Charles Evans has recently argued that big corporate deals could exert downward pressure on inflation as technology “keeps moving and disrupts”. Scott Sumner disagrees that technology is keeping down inflation and points to the slow nominal GDP growth.
What’s causing the low inflation?
By: Scott Sumner – George Mason UniversityJames Hamilton agrees that other factors are having a bigger impact on inflation than the unemployment rate right now. So is the Phillips curve the right framework for policymakers to think about inflation?
Are we in a new inflation regime?
By: James Hamilton – University of California, San Diego

A lukewarm yes from Cecchetti and al. who find that inflation changes by less than 0.1 percentage-point when the unemployment rate changes by 1 per percent.
Deflating Inflation Expectations: The Implications of Inflation’s Simple Dynamics   Authors: Stephen G. Cecchetti, Michael E. Feroli, Peter Hooper, Anil K Kashyap, Hermit L. Schoenholtz
From: USMPF University of Chicago

As global value chains expand, Auer and al. argue, inflation can no longer be modeled as a country-centric phenomenon. Direct and indirect competition among economies seem to link national inflation rates to the global output gap.
The Globalisation of Inflation: The Growing Importance of Global Value Chains
Authors: Raphael Auer, Claudio Borio, Andrew Filardo
From: CESifo
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