Keynes’ critique of econometrics
Keynes criticized econometric modelling because the main assumptions it relies upon namely: a) existence of a correct model specification; b) homogeneous samples; c) stable spatio-temporal relationships; d) independent variables; and e) measurability of factors, are too simplistic.
… Keynes points us to the fundamental logical, epistemological and ontological problems of applying statistical methods to a basically unpredictable, uncertain, complex, unstable, interdependent, and ever-changing social reality. Methods designed to analyse repeated sampling in controlled experiments under fixed conditions are not easily extended to an organic and non-atomistic world where time and history play decisive roles.
Keynes’ critique of econometrics — still valid after all these years
By: Lars Syll – Malmö University
Time for data science?
Lief Nelson argues that for most issues we can’t even identify the “average effect”.
If you want the “Big Average” effect (a, b, c, d, e, and f) then you need to clarify that you have access to the population or can perfectly estimate the biases that influence the size of each category.
How Many Studies Have Not Been Run? Why We Still Think the Average Effect Does Not Exist
By: Lief Nelson – Berkeley
