The Germany Illusion
Author: Marcel Fratzscher – DIW Berlin & Humboldt-University
Fratzscher’s trenchant analysis sheds light on the true state of Germany’s economy, which is neither as rosy as optimists believe nor as hidebound as pessimists fear. He covers the breadth of the German economy, from its deceptive employment miracle, the sources and underlying problems of its export strengths, its large investment gap, and not least the differences between east and west that continue since reunification. Understanding the domestic scene in Germany is crucial to understanding its relationships with other European countries, the European Union, and the United States.
The Value of Everything: Making and Taking in the Global Economy
Author: Mariana Mazzucato – University College London
In modern capitalism, value-extraction is rewarded more highly than value-creation: the productive process that drives a healthy economy and society. From companies driven solely to maximize shareholder value to astronomically high prices of medicines justified through big pharma’s ‘value pricing’, we misidentify taking with making, and have lost sight of what value really means. Once a central plank of economic thought, this concept of value – what it is, why it matters to us – is simply no longer discussed. Yet, argues Mariana Mazzucato in this penetrating and passionate new book, if we are to reform capitalism – radically to transform an increasingly sick system rather than continue feeding it – we urgently need to rethink where wealth comes from.
Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State
Author: Paul Tucker – Harvard Kennedy School
Blending economics, political theory, and public law, Tucker explores the necessary conditions for delegated but politically insulated power to be legitimate in the eyes of constitutional democracy and the rule of law. He explains why the solution must fit with how real-world government is structured, and why technocrats and their political overseers need incentives to make the system work as intended. Tucker explains how the regulatory state need not be a fourth branch of government free to steer by its own lights, and how central bankers can emulate the best of judicial self-restraint and become models of dispersed power.
Unelected Power is a well-researched, extremely knowledgeable, and authoritative account by a leading expert. It is destined to be one of the most important books on this increasingly topical and contentious subject.
Charles Goodhart, London School of Economics
Authors: Eric Ghysels, Massimiliano Marcellino – UNC Chapel Hill, Bocconi University
This is first and foremost a book aimed at applying time series methods to solve real-world forecasting problems. Applied Economic Forecasting using Time Series Methods starts with a brief review of basic regression analysis with a focus on specific regression topics relevant for forecasting, such as model specification errors, dynamic models and their predictive properties as well as forecast evaluation and combination. Several chapters cover univariate time series models, vector autoregressive models, cointegration and error correction models, and Bayesian methods for estimating vector autoregressive models. A collection of special topics chapters study Threshold and Smooth Transition Autoregressive (TAR and STAR) models, Markov switching regime models, state space models and the Kalman filter, mixed frequency data models, nowcasting, forecasting using large datasets and, finally, volatility models.
This book, by two masters of applied time-series forecasting, is modern, well-balanced, and insightful. And special chapters on things like forecasting in Big Data and/or mixed-frequency data environments enhance its appeal, as does the full set of EViews and R code supplied. Applied Economic Forecasting using Time Series Methods will be an invaluable resource for students and practitioners alike.
Francis X. Diebold, University of Pennsylvania
