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Macro

Narrative economics and black swans

Posted by e-axes on May 25, 2017

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Shiller explains that the human brain is built around narratives. These narratives affect people’s actions independently of whether they are factual or not. When narratives “go viral” they have an economic impact as they influence actions such as spending and investing. So far, economists have missed the stories behind economic fluctuations because their tool kit could not incorporate them. Research on narrative economics, Shiller argues, could lead to a better understanding of economic phenomena.

“The very name “Great Recession” could be interpreted as evidence of a narrative epidemic.” In 1978 Otto Eckstein tried to attach the name “Great Recession” to the severe recession of 1974-75 and in 1982 Joseph Granville tried to do the same for the 1981-1982 recession. Neither times the term entered people’s narrative. “It was different, however, in 2007-9. Nouriel Roubini first referred to the “Great Recession of 2007” in late 2006, a year before the recession had started.  But it took several more years, until 2009, for the term to catch on and go viral”
Narrative Economics
Author: Robert Shiller
From: Yale University
A shorter version of Shiller’s paper
Economics and the human instinct for storytelling
By: Robert Shiller

Today’s narrative

Rare events or black swans, when they happen they generate persistent changes in beliefs. The 2008 financial crisis, according to Kozlowski and al., has generated such change with people being fearful that other black swans might be imminent. Their model suggests that these updated beliefs could provide an explanation for the persistent downward shift in US output.
The Tail that Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation
Authors: Julian Kozlowski, Laura Veldkamp, Venky Venkateswaran
From: New York University

Going forward

Eric Beinhocker argues that the new narrative we create for the future should contain:
A new story of growth
A new story of inclusion
A new social contract
A new idealism.
A new narrative for a complex age
By: Eric Beinhocker – Oxford University

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