A short description of the November 25th agreement
…and an interesting point:
Does not the commitment to fair competition impose some level of tax harmonization in the EU-27, particularly with respect to the rates and terms of corporation tax? Was the EU-27 right to support the Irish Republic without some quid pro quo? It is unclear how the EU-27 could accuse the UK of practicing unfair competition when it tolerates the practices of Ireland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg.
Brexit: the November 25th agreement
By: Catherine Mathieu, Henri Sterdyniak – SciencesPo
BREXIT AND TRADE
Effects of Brexit uncertainty
Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products and asymmetric for UK and EU exporters. We estimate that a persistent doubling of the probability of Brexit at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% lowers EU-UK bilateral export values by 15 log points on average, and more so for EU than UK exporters.
Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration
Authors: Alejandro Graziano, Kyle Handley, Nuno Limão
From: University of Maryland, University of Michigan
Case study: impact of Brexit on the Netherlands
Simulations using the METRO model suggest that from an increase in tariff and non-tariff measures (NTM’s) Dutch exports to the UK would fall by 17% and GDP declines by 0.7% in the medium term compared to baseline. This effect is from the trade channel absent any change in foreign direct investment (FDI) or productivity. The Dutch agri-food sector would experience a 22% fall in its UK exports. There are some sectors that gain from the export opportunities provided by Brexit, notably financial services and transport.
The potential economic impact of Brexit on the Netherlands
Authors: Donal Smith, Christine Arriola, Caitlyn Carrico, Frank van Tongeren
From: OECD
Theorizing
Why Brexit is so much more problematic than the financial crisis of 2008
By: Tony Yates – University of Birmingham
Brexit and democracy
By: John Cochrane – Stanford University
