Population projections
In June 2019 the UN published the World Population Prospects 2019. Some of the highlights include:
- From an estimated 7.7 billion people worldwide in 2019, the medium-variant projection indicates that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 10.9 billion in 2100.
- In 2018, for the first time in history, persons aged 65 years or over worldwide outnumbered children under age five. Projections indicate that by 2050 there will be more than twice as many persons above 65 as children under five.
- More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just nine countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, the United Republic of Tanzania, and the United States of America.
Global Population Projections: Parameters Shaping the Future
By: Timothy Taylor – Journal of Economic Perspectives
Can automation mitigate the effects of demographic decline?
[I]n a world of rapidly expanding automation potential, demographic shrinkage is largely a boon, not a threat. Our expanding ability to automate human work across all sectors – agriculture, industry, and services – makes an ever-growing workforce increasingly irrelevant to improvements in human welfare. Conversely, automation makes it impossible to achieve full employment in countries still facing rapid population growth.
In Praise of Demographic Decline
By: Adair Turner – Institute for New Economic Thinking
Demographic decline and climate policies
Drawing on data from over 12,000 German households, Andor and al. find that elderly people are less concerned about climate change, but more concerned about other global challenges. Furthermore, they are less likely to support climate-friendly policies, such as the subsidization of renewables, or allocate public resources to environmental policies. They suggest that the ongoing demographic change in industrialized countries could undermine climate policies going forward.
Climate Change, Population Ageing and Public Spending: Evidence on Individual Preferences
Authors: Mark Andor, Christoph M. Schmidt, Stephan Sommer
From: Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, Ruhr-Universität Bochum
