Likelihood of a global debt crisis in 2025
Based on the search results and current date provided, here is a summary of the different economists’ opinions on the likelihood of a global debt crisis in 2025, including their affiliations:
Optimistic Views
Some economists see a relatively low probability of a serious global debt crisis:
- Steven Kamin (Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute) rates it a 3-4 out of 10, saying it’s “not an event worth losing sleep over”
- Holger Schmieding (Chief Economist, Berenberg Bank) gives it a 3 out of 10 chance in the next three years
- Chen Zhao (Assistant Professor, NYU Shanghai) rates it only a 1 out of 10, arguing that a sovereign debt crisis is very unlikely for countries that borrow in their own currency
Moderate Views
Several economists see a moderate risk:
- Olivier Blanchard (Robert Solow Professor of Economics Emeritus, MIT) rates it a 3 out of 10, but he does not exclude seeing it in some advanced
economies. - Lorenzo Codogno (Visiting Professor, London School of Economics) rates it a 5 out of 10 in the next three years, but higher over a longer timeframe
- Richard Koo (Chief Economist, Nomura Research Institute) gives it a 3 out of 10 chance, not currently seeing the kind of global lending craze that preceded past crises
- Mark Sobel (US Chairman, OMFIF) doesn’t give a specific rating but sees elevated risks, especially for the U.S., though not likely systemic in the next few years
Pessimistic Views
Some economists see a higher probability of crisis:
- David Malpass (Former President, World Bank Group) rates it a 10 out of 10, arguing the world is already in a serious debt crisis
- Desmond Lachman (Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute) gives it an 8 out of 10 chance
- Jim O’Neill (Former Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management) says another serious debt crisis is “virtually certain” though maybe not in the next 3 years
- Robert Dugger (Former Managing Director, Tudor Investment Corporation) rates it an 8 out of 10 chance in the next three years
The economists cited several key factors influencing the risk of crisis, including high government debt levels, the end of ultra-low interest rates, demographic pressures, potential loss of confidence in major economies, and climate change risks.
Is a Serious Global Debt Crisis Possible?
By: The International Economy
Some interesting graphs
Winds of Change – Prospects for Debt Markets in 2025
By: Institute of International Finance
