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Macro

For the next downturn…

Posted by e-axes on November 8, 2017

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Is Europe ready?

Martin Feldstein thinks that Europe is in a particularly weak position to deal with the next downturn: monetary policy has little ammunition left as the short-term interest rate is still negative and fiscal policy is under the purview of national governments which might find it difficult to adopt an expansionary policy stance…
Europe’s Economic Dilemma
By: Martin Feldstein

…since in some cases debt issued by national fiscal authorities can be subject to the risk of default.
Corsetti and al. propose a specific institutional set-up that could mitigate such problem and will consist of two elements: a) the introduction of a non-defaultable Eurobond; and b) the ability for euro area member states to be able to restructure national public debt as a last resort in an orderly way.
Macroeconomic stabilization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe’s monetary union
Authors: Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola, Marek Jarociński, Bartosz Maćkowiak, Sebastian Schmidt
From:ECB

Which expansionary fiscal policy at the ZLB? Tax cuts or government spending?

Eggertsson and Garga find that at the ZLB, and with either sticky prices or sticky information, tax cuts can have a contractionary effect on the economy. In particular, they argue that “[…] the paradoxical results for fiscal policy multiplier at the ZLB could be interpreted as reflecting a weakness of the Calvo model. This paper, however, clarifies that these paradoxes are not a product of the Calvo assumption, but rather are a fundamental feature of models with nominal rigidities, irrespective of its source, be it sticky prices or sticky information.”


The above table summarizes the numerical results for the two models, calibrated to produce a 10{5e7f07e14add20b2e04f4edb85a447d3cd8121fc27b809645e9fed603c22cc5c} drop in output and 2{5e7f07e14add20b2e04f4edb85a447d3cd8121fc27b809645e9fed603c22cc5c} annual deflation on impact.
Sticky Prices Versus Sticky Information: Does it Matter for Policy Paradoxes?
Authors: Gauti B. Eggertsson, Vaishali Garga
From: Brown University

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