How economic performance affects voter preferences
Rashad Ahmed and M. Hashem Pesaran in this paper study the determinants of election outcomes and their predictive content in the U.S. using a model which allows for heterogeneity in the effects of socioeconomic and demographic factors on voter turnout and election outcomes. Their high-dimensional statistical model finds evidence of ‘short-memory’ among voters: economic fluctuations realized a few months prior to the election are indeed powerful predictors of voting outcomes as compared to their longer- term analogues. Based on available data at the time of forecasting (early September 2020) they updated the 2016 model specification to generate predictions for the 2020 U.S. Presidential election under different regional model specifications. Their predictions suggest the outcomes
to be very close.
Regional Heterogeneity and U.S. Presidential Elections
Authors: Rashad Ahmed, M. Hashem Pesaran
From: University of Southern California
Polarization leads to higher economic uncertainty
Baker and al. examine patterns of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) around national elections in 23 countries. In the U.S. data shows that EPU rises by 28% in the month of presidential elections that are close and polarized, as compared to elections that are neither. This pattern suggests that the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election could see a large rise in economic policy uncertainty. It also suggests larger spikes in uncertainty around future elections in other countries that have experienced rising polarization in recent years.
Hm…!
Yoshikuni Ono and Masahiko Asano explore whether good looking candidates have a higher probability of winning elections. They conducted a survey experiment with about 3,000 Japanese voters to analyze the effect of a candidate’s beauty on voter perceptions. They found that good looks increase the chances of a win much more than voters’ impression of the candidate’s competence and trustworthiness!
Why Beauty Matters: Candidates’ Facial Appearance and Electoral Success
Authors: Yoshikuni Ono, Masahiko Asano
From: Waseda University, Takushoku University
