The 2024–2025 literature on decoupling and fragmentation is rich and rapidly evolving, with new empirical tools and models quantifying the economic, financial, and sectoral impacts. The consensus is that fragmentation—whether in trade, finance, or FDI—poses significant risks, especially for emerging economies and globally integrated sectors, though some studies find nuanced or even positive effects for certain countries or blocs. Below we selected the latest research addressing different aspects of fragmentation.
The list of papers
- Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects
Authors: Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Tomohide Mineyama, Dongho Song
From: University of Pennsylvania, IMF, Johns Hopkins University - Playing with blocs: Quantifying decoupling
Authors: Barthélémy Bonadio, Zhen Huo, Elliot Kang, Andrei A. Levchenko, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Hiroshi Toma, Petia Topalova
From: NYU-Abu Dhabi, Yale University, University of Michigan, University of Texas at Austin, IMF - Navigating a fragmenting global trading system: insights for central banks
From: ECB - How Widespread is FDI Fragmentation?
Authors: Joanne Tan
From: IMF - Material Footprint and Economic Growth Decoupling Toward Green Development: Comparative Analysis of EU and BRICS Countries
Authors: Shaobo Guo, Fuguo Cao, Yusen Yang
From: Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing - FraNK: Fragmentation in the New Keynesian model
Authors: Alessandro Moro, Valerio Nispi Landi
From: Bank of Italy
