Achievements and disappointments
Robert Stavins in this commentary reflects on the outcomes and developments from the recent UN Climate Change Conference (COP-28) held in Dubai:
- On the surface, COP-28’s outcomes related to fossil fuels and renewables in the closing statement have received the most attention. However, Stavins argues the statements are non-binding and it is instead national policies that will drive climate action.
- The most significant development was the U.S.-China joint statement made prior to COP-28, signaling renewed cooperation on climate change between the two countries. Their cooperation is essential.
- Stavins observes an increasing prominence of civil society and the private sector at the COPs, making up 90% of meaningful interactions vs only 10% from negotiations. The COP has evolved into a “Climate Expo.”
- There was a striking increase in attention and initiatives targeting methane emissions reductions at COP-28: a large group of leading oil and gas companies pledged to achieve near zero methane emissions by 2030 and to completely eliminate routine flaring by the same year.
Also at COP-28, the United States, China, and the UAE held a methane summit, which featured a series of relevant pledges. And the World Bank focused on its Global Flaring and Methane Reduction Partnership, as well as the Global Methane Hub launching its Enteric Fermentation Accelerator. In addition to the $1 billion in new grant funding noted above, international financial institutions approved more than $3.5 billion in new investments in methane-reducing projects since COP-27.
- Disappointments included a lack of actionable commitments on adaptation and setbacks for international carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.
- Overall, COP-28 demonstrated the increasing role of private sector climate action. The next milestone is countries submitting enhanced NDCs by COP-30 in 2025.
What Really Happened at COP-28 in Dubai
By: Robert Stavins – Harvard University
Methane
The pledge to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030 was led by the US and EU and has now been signed by countries responsible for half of global methane emissions. But in this commentary, Gernot Wagner notes that this pledge focuses specifically on reducing methane (CH4) emissions, mainly from oil and gas operations, and does not address the need to also reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that result from fossil fuel use. Wagner states that while reducing methane emissions is important, the ultimate goal should be reducing all greenhouse gas emissions, including CO2, by rapidly transitioning away from fossil fuels.
- Wagner is somewhat skeptical of the motives behind this pledge, as it aligns with the oil and gas industry’s own interests. Reducing methane emissions would allow companies to sell more of the gas they produce, rather than wasting it through leaks and venting. The author suggests the industry is using the “performative circus” of the COP summit to draw attention to this pledge when these kinds of emission reductions should be happening regardless.
- Overall, the pledge is a step in the right direction, but the author argues it should not distract from the broader goals of transitioning fully away from fossil fuels and eliminating emissions of all greenhouse gases, not just methane. The sincerity of the industry’s commitments remains questionable as long as they continue extracting and selling oil and gas.
How to Assess the Outcome of COP28
By: Gernot Wagner – Columbia Business School
