Is Chinese growth slowing down?
Headline growth remains strong but it could mask domestic vulnerabilities which will contribute to further growth slowdown.
Q3 Chinese Growth
By: Menzie Chinn – University of Wisconsin–Madison
Demographic headwinds
For better or worse, China’s demographic dividend has already been cashed. Between 1978 and 2010, China’s 15-64 group shot up from 58% of total population to an amazing 74%. Now it is on its way back down, and by 2040, in our UNPD projections, it will be back to 62%–where it was in 1982—and still heading south.
China’s Demographic Prospects to 2040: Opportunities, Constraints, Potential Policy Responses
By: Nicholas Eberstadt – American Enterprise Institute
Future growth prospects and human capital
From 1980 to 2004, China’s per capita income increased from $599 (in US dollars) to $13,206. About 40 percent of the gain in the Chinese per capita income is associated with higher levels of education.
But…
[…]the unlikely hope for 7 percent annual growth in China over the next 20 years would mean that China would need to have a relationship between human capital and per capita income that is considerably higher than the typical global experience would suggest is plausible.
Human Capital and China’s Future Growth
Authors: Hongbin Li, Prashant Loyalka, Scott Rozelle, Binzhen Wu
From: Stanford University, Graduate School of Education, Tsinghua University
