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Monetary Policy

Changing of the guard at the Fed

Posted by e-axes on October 26, 2017

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In support of Janet Yellen

But Janet Yellen stands head and shoulders above the rest, because she is least likely to err either by hitting the monetary brakes prematurely or by staying on the brakes too long. Either mistake could end the economic winning streak.

The Case for Keeping Janet Yellen
By: Alan Blinder – Princeton University (Wall Street Journal paywall)

In support of John Taylor

Not true, argues John Cochrane, because under Janet Yellen’s watch monetary policy relied too much on discretion while what is really needed is a stable rules-based approach à la Taylor rule. As for the issue of Regulation and Supervision, which will become quite important going forward, Cochrane prefers Taylor’s more laissez faire approach.
Taylor for Fed
By: John Cochrane – Stanford University

Discretion vs rules

Lars Svensson argues that Taylor-type rules are too mechanical and fail to reflect important information that enables monetary policy to respond to the determinants of the future realizations of inflation and employment and not just to the current levels. As far as the assertion that the Taylor rule should be seen as mere guidelines for monetary policy:

A problem with this answer is that the rule is then incomplete: some deviations are allowed, but there are no rules for when deviations from the instrument rules are appropriate.

What Rule for the Federal Reserve? Forecast Targeting
Author:Lars E.O. Svensson
From: Stockholm School of Economics

From theory to policy

Salter and Smith find that economists’preexisting beliefs and principles while in academia are not congruent with their policy stances once they transition to policymaking roles.
Political Economists or Political Economists? The Role of Political Environments in the Formation of Fed Policy under Burns, Greenspan, and Bernanke
Authors:Alexander W. Salter, Daniel J. Smith
From: Texas Tech University – Troy University

Twitter anyone?

To Manage Expectations, Central Banks Need Social Media Savvy
By: Howard Davies – LSE

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Read Next →

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Communicating Uncertainty: Fan Charts, Confidence, and Credibility

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Macroeconomic Risk: From Scenario Synthesis to Distributional Transmission

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