Two new interesting papers on how to improve forecasting performance.

Inflation in both the US and Europe has risen significantly. Why this increase might be transitory for Europe but not for the US.

Are low interest rates expansionary or contractionary? A look at U.S. corporate leverage.

The World Bank constructed a global database of inflation and the Federal Reserve Board constructed an alternative measure.

Patterns in unemployment can help predict a recession almost a year in advance…and people know what is coming.

Two new interesting contributions to behavioral macroeconomics that feature heterogeneous agents with information frictions.

Can a government permanently raise the deficit, without ever having to raise taxes? New interesting research… and no it is not MMT!

Novel new data sets enable researchers to model agents’ economic decisions in a way that is closer to reality. Two papers on how peer effects impact housing markets.

Two different models and data to calculate the welfare cost in the U.S. and Europe.

New research that studies the psychological foundations of information processing.