Author: e-axes

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Trade

The challenges of the current international trade rules system

New research on how international power impacts trade rules and why the current international trade rules system is unraveling.

Books

New and noteworthy books in economics (June)

This month’s selections address different questions: can capitalism fix our current crises? How does climate change mitigation impact economic growth? Can economic theory efficiently address substantive economic issues?  What does AI mean for our identity?

Trade

The escalation of the U.S.-China trade war

New research on how the shift in expectations to a prolonged trade war accounts for the increase in expected future U.S. tariffs on China.

Markets

Who is holding US Treasuries?

In recent decades the amount of US debt held by the Federal Reserve through its quantitative easing program rose significantly. Who is buying U.S. treasuries now that the Fed is reducing its holdings?

China

Shadow banking in China

In China it was expansionary fiscal policy (and not monetary policy) that contributed to the rapid rise in shadow banking which persists despite efforts from the government to contain it.

Macro

Employment trends: new theories

New research on how belonging to a community affects employment and the impact of company-wide, voluntary minimum wages on employee retention.

Macro

The predictive power of the yield curve

Two new research papers document two different channels through which the slope of the U.S. yield curve and the slope of foreign yield curves are predictors of U.S. economic activity.

Macro

Public debt dynamics

New research on the optimal level of debt and public debt sustainability in an uncertain macro-financial environment.

Inflation

On trend inflation

Two new papers highlight the significant impact of trend inflation on economic dynamics: ignoring trend inflation can lead to overestimating the cost of disinflation and if trend inflation is above a certain threshold is associated with substantial long-run output losses.

Tech

AI and the macroeconomy

Some experts believe that artificial general intelligence (AGI), enabling AI to perform essentially all human tasks, will have transformative implications for the macroeconomy. Are these positive estimates exaggerated?

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