Author: e-axes

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Macro

Is unemployment a lagging indicator?

Patterns in unemployment can help predict a recession almost a year in advance…and people know what is coming.

Climate

On the social discount rate

New research on how recent trends in real interest rates are relevant for climate policy decisions and how housing markets provide information about the appropriate discount rates for valuing investments in climate change abatement.

Inequality

Reflections on inequality

On inequality through the lens of history.  Economists worry about inequality but people worry about lack of opportunity – a new US survey.

Macro

The transmission of macroeconomic policies

Two new interesting contributions to behavioral macroeconomics that feature heterogeneous agents with information frictions.

Oil

About the surging energy prices

What are the drivers behind the recent surge in energy prices? What are energy futures predicting?

Books

New and noteworthy books in economics (October)

For this month we have selected: Coyle on “new economics”, Goldin on women, career and family, Qian on the emerging China and Piketty on socialism.

Economic Growth

Is it time to talk about stagflation?

It’s all about the Fed’s credibility, but can China play a role?

Inequality

Capital-skill complementarity: does it still hold?

As technology changes does skilled labor still enjoy a wage premium? What is the equilibrium level of automation?

Macro

Fiscal sustainability post COVID-19

Can a government permanently raise the deficit, without ever having to raise taxes? New interesting research… and no it is not MMT!

Economic Growth

The October global economic outlook

The latest revisions to the global economic outlook point towards increasing uncertainty. A new paper on how to investigate growth at risk.

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