A new IMF working paper traces the role of oil in the global economy beyond 2040. But are our energy intensity projections accurate? If so, will a low oil price cause a macroeconomic shock of historic proportions in the Middle East?
How will this tug of war between OPEC and US shale oil producers will affect the balance between oil supply and demand going forward? This is the question that new research from the IMF and the University of Michigan are trying to answer.